Saturday, September 27, 2025

Zelenskyy’s Secret Weapon Request

I don’t know what Ukrainian President Zelenskyy asked for when he spoke to President Trump, as discussed on “The Axios Show”, and cited by Preston Stewart on YouTube as “Zelenskyy’s Secret Weapon”. Regardless, I  believe that Rapid Dragon, a combination of JASSM-A Missiles and C-130 Transports, could bring Putin to the table, or to defeat and ruin, in a few months. I looked up the area and roughly estimated the dimensions of Crimea after viewing the linked video. Barring calculation errors, most of the Crimean peninsula falls well within the published “greater than or equal” range of the °largely obsolescent° JASSM-A. 


The United States has 
only about 4000 JASSM-A missiles lying in storage waiting to degrade into unusable garbage. So, their current value should fall considerably below the approximately one million pre-Biden dollars initially paid for each one. 


(JASSM counts, ranges, and costs from Wikipedia)

C-130s possibly could come from the Ready Reserve at the Davis-Montham AFB Bone Yard. If the Bone Yard Ready Reserve falls short of the ten to twenty C-130s estimated as needed,  accelerated retirements of the oldest C-130s scheduled for upgrade or retirement should fill-the-Bill—that could include C-130s slated for replacement by our allies.

Based on public information about Rapid Dragon, and the generalship demonstrated by Ukraine, it would seem likely that 120 JASSMs could keep the Kerch Bridge System 
closed as long as needed, especially if the United States, Europe, or both provide Ukraine weapons able to target repair crews and equipment with cluster munitions. The Kerch Bridge System once carried virtually all the supplies from Russia to Crimea. Now, a great deal flows in via vulnerable rail lines.


When Ukraine targets the Bridge, additional JASSM-As would simultaneously begin systematically destroying known fuel and ammunition depots in Crimea. Without sufficient ammunition and fuel, troops on the peninsula would have few options except surrender. The loss of the peninsula could in turn bring down Putin. 

Assuming all the foregoing all happens, the United States needs a means to manage the “Fall of Putin.” That is a topic for another blog post.

 

Thus, the effective use of JASSMs by Ukraine could very well return Crimea to Ukraine and likely end the war.

In other news, if JASSMs did force a mass surrender of Soviet forces in Crimea, Xi Jinping might very well “postpone” his plans to invade Taiwan; adding further support to the observation of Justin Bronk that, “It is cheaper to deter a war than to win a war.” A thought for cost conscious President Trump. 

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Final Offer: Unconditional Surrender

 President Trump’s “Final Offer” to Ukraine amounts to an unconditional surrender!

 

I voted for Donald Trump. I got Neville Chamberlain


Despite my ardent support for President Trump on all other issues, if he forces Ukraine to surrender to Putin, I will be through with Donald Trump. And, I am not alone.

 

The President can do little else more 

to bring on World War III than forcing Ukraine to surrender to Putin. Does he really believe that simply because he, Donald Trump, makes a deal with Putin the war will not resume as soon as a new President takes office?

 

Does not President Trump understand the incentive that cow towing to Putin will present to China, North Korea, and others!

 

Before the election I was sure that President Trump’s “one phone call” would be an ultimatum to Putin. “Leave Ukraine or face humiliation the battlefield.” Instead, President Trump seems at once cowed 

and seduced by Putin and his minions. The President’s naïveté about Putin utterly astounds and disappoints me.


Friday, February 14, 2025

Munich II: Churchill or Chamberlain?

How ironic that President Trump plans to talk peace in Munich 87 years after Neville Chamberlain caved in to Hitler in that very city! President Trump will forever bear the moniker of “The Neville Chamberlain of the 21st Century” if he forces Ukraine to cede Vladimir Putin any significant territory, especially Crimea.

 

Negotiations need to end with President Trump “suggesting” that Putin “declare victory and completely leave Ukraine” or risk a humiliating defeat of the Red Army. The war in Ukraine will only end with a Victory —either Ukrainian or Russian. Putin will violate any deal he signs at Munich as soon as he feels able to take over Ukraine—or perhaps when another Biden or Obama wins the White House, whichever happens first.

 

President Trump needs to recognize that, as in all deals, international “deals” only work with trustworthy partners. Putin did not keep his word in the 2014 “Budapest Memorandum” and he will not keep it now. Giving Putin an appreciable piece of Ukraine will ultimately lead to Russia’s total conquest of that nation.

 

Neville Chamberlain only gave Hitler the German Speaking part of Czechoslovakia. One year later, the most horrific war in human history was a few days short of a month old. Vladimir Putin used essentially the same claim as Hitler, mistreating Russian speakers, to justify invading the Don Bas region of Ukraine in 2014—Twenty years after Russia, Great Britain, and the United States “assured” the security of Ukraine and its then current boundaries — including Don Bas — in the empty Budapest Memorandum.  

 

The President seems to believe that Russia will forever honor a deal simply because he (President Trump) negotiated it! Has the President forgotten Biden’s departure from Afghanistan? Putin has already broken one “deal” over Ukraine; and he will rule Russia long after President Trump leaves office. How can Presidentp Trump be so naïve about the utter duplicity of Vladimir Putin.

 

Possible Consequences of Munich II: A Russian diplomatic victory in Ukraine could easily trigger other wars. More people than presidents Trump, Putin, and NATO leaders have an eye on the outcome of Munich II. A Chamberlain-like outcome could:

·      Significantly increase the chances of China invading Taiwan

·      Entice Russia to “snap up” Kazakhstan; a Putin crony reportedly said that “Kazakhstan is next” months ago

·      Lead to Turkey, a NATO ally, attempting to annex the Kurdish territories of Syria, Iraq, and even Iran — of late, Turkey seems to have this plan well underway

·      Convince Russia to attempt a rapid advance into the Baltic states (Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania) thinking the United States will not respond to a fast takeover — as J.D. Vance in particular seems resigned to allowing the conquest of parts of neighbors via a “fait accompli”

·      Other bad consequences could flow from a bad Munich II.

 

Comments Welcome

 

DJ


Addendum:  The Treaty Putin personally sighted was the “Treaty on the Russian-Ukrainian Border” of 2003. Thus, Putin broke two agreements, one of which he signed as President of Russia.—Thank you Operator Starsky.


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_border

Retrieved 2/15/2025

DJ