Take Heart; Peace Possible in Darfur

Take heart! A statistic cited in a recent email from RGCl should encourage everyone, especially those concerned about Darfur. Specifically:

83% of the people killed by firearms in the world are killed in the USA, where most TV shows and movies either begin or climax with a woman being raped and/or murdered.

Most distressing.

Distressing as the cited figure may seem, it means that we, and the people of Darfur, can all rest more easily tonight! The U.S. Navy can almost effortlessly end the slaughter of innocents there by simply enforcing a no fly zone. Until the email arrived from RGCl, I had believed, mistakenly it seems, that Muslim militias generally made the venerable AK-47 their “weapon of choice.” That must not be true of the Janjaweed militias in Sudan.

Over roughly 20 years, the Sudanese Government (see ERRATA below) killed two million Christians and animists, an average of 100,000 each year. Only when the Janjaweed turned their weapons on fellow Muslims (with the aid of the Sudanese Government most sources agree) did the world suddenly realize that a moral crisis existed that demanded action. Even Hollywood got into the act, with many prominent celebs demanding that President Bush act immediately; but that is the topic of another post, isn’t it.

Let us return to the good news for Darfur. Since fewer than 6,000 people outside of the United States die by firearms each year (see table below), the Janjaweed militias must be using other weapons: bombs, spears, swords, clubs, knives—perhaps rocks. Actually, I think one safely can rule out knives, spears, clubs, and rocks. The people of Darfur could easily obtain or make any of those. Swords would not seem to provide enough of an advantage to enable a numerically inferior force to kill 100,000 people each year; thus, the Janjaweed must be using air power to kill so many people. Assuming that is correct, the U.S. Navy should have little difficulty suppressing the Janjaweed from the air. Deprived of their bombs, the Janjaweed will have to fall back on their swords, spears, clubs, knives, and rocks. The numerically superior population of Darfur should have little difficulty defending themselves against raiders armed only with such primitive weapons.

Here are some statistics (Sources in Red):

Incidents Involving Firearms

Incidents involving firearms resulted in 29,000 deaths or 1.2% of the total [deaths in the United States]

Source: http://dying.about.com/od/causes/tp/actual_death.htm

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In 1993, a firearm was involved in the deaths of 39,395 people

Source: http://www.delta.edu/mkhiatt/gun_deaths_us.html

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According to a new report from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, injuries were the fifth leading cause of death in 2001, accounting for 157,078

The five leading causes of fatal injuries accounted for 78 percent of all injury deaths . . . firearms (19 percent)

Suicides accounted for 57 percent of all firearms deaths and homicides represented 38 percent. Unintentional firearms injury accounted for 802 deaths or 2.7 percent of the total.

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/data/timely0604injuries.pdf

Doing the math on the CDC statistics:

	Total Injury Deaths	157,078
	Firearms (19 percent)	29845
	Homicides (38 percent of firearms—includes those lawfully killed by police and in self defense—dj)	11341
	Suicides (57 percent of firearms)	17012
	Subtotal	29155
	Rounding et al	690
		29845
	Doing the math on the statistic quoted by RGCl:
	Estimated firearms deaths world wide (29155/.85)			35112
Firearms deaths outside the USA			5267

Q.E.D.

Please note, if any of the statistics cited by RGCl, fail to hold up, the people of Darfur remain in “a heap 'o trouble”; trouble for the Arab League to deal with – not the West.

DJ

ERRATA:

Earlier, I had attributed the two million deaths over 20 years to the Janjaweed. Per Slate, "(This conflict is entirely separate from the 22-year-old civil war that has pitted the Muslim government against Christian and animist rebels in the country's southern region. The Janjaweed, who inhabit western Sudan, have nothing to do with that war.)"

Although, the Sudanese government denies helping the Janjaweed, I do not consider lumping them and the Janjaweed together a major error; it is, nonetheless, an error.

See: http://www.slate.com/id/2104210/