Some thoughts for “Values Voters”

Will anti-abortion zeal reelect President Obama?

No president can, much less will, materially reduce the number of abortions performed in the United States. Nor will any president's Supreme Court appointees. If you think otherwise, check out Table One. A mere 13 states accounted for just a touch under 75% of all abortions performed in United States during 2008. Those statistics hold the key to important realities that "values voters” would do well to consider while casting their ballots in 2012 Republican Presidential primaries and caucuses.

Table 1
2008
Total US	1,211,500
State	Number	Percent	CumPct
California	214,190	17.68%	17.68%
New York	153,110	12.64%	30.32%
Florida	94,360	7.79%	38.11%
Texas	84,610	6.98%	45.09%
New Jersey	54,160	4.47%	49.56%
Illinois	54,920	4.53%	54.09%
Michigan	36,790	3.04%	57.13%
Maryland	34,290	2.83%	59.96%
Ohio	33,550	2.77%	62.73%
North Carolina	33,140	2.74%	65.47%
Pennsylvania	41,000	3.38%	68.85%
Georgia	39,820	3.29%	72.14%
Virginia	28,520	2.35%	74.49%
[Number of abortions by state of occurrence from surveys of hospitals, clinics, and physicians identified as providers of abortion services conducted by the Guttmacher Institute. The Guttmacher Institute  reallocates abortions to the woman's state of residence for survey years. Abortion rates are computed per 1,000 women 15 to 44 years of age on July 1 of specified year]
For more information:
http://www.guttmacher.org/
Internet release date: 09/30/2011
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/

For 38 years, anti-abortion advocates have spent millions of dollars and tens of thousands of hours failing to “overturn Roe vs. Wade.” None of those efforts has reduced the number of abortions one scintilla. Moreover, had they managed to overturn Roe vs. Wade, Table One demonstrates that they would not have accomplished much more than the nothing they have accomplished so far.

A little background. If the Supreme Court reversed itself tomorrow and overturned Roe vs. Wade, abortions would not suddenly become illegal anywhere, much less nationwide. A reversal would simply enable individual states to pass new laws restricting or banning abortions; just as when the Supreme Court partially reversed its nationwide ban on the death penalty. That reversal did not reinstate the death penalty; it allowed states to reinstate the death penalty—albeit, under specific guidelines. Reversing Roe vs. Wade would doubtless operate in much the same way.

Possible exception: According to Wikipedia, some states, including Illinois, have passed “trigger laws” that would reinstate abortion bans if the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade. This might reduce some abortions if bright blue Illinois does not repeal the trigger. Thus, the impact of trigger laws remains to be seen. For now, your author will stand by his premises.

Cold hard facts. Without considering the oft debated moral, theological and freedom issues swirling about the abortion debate, consider some facts that clearly demonstrate the ruthless bottom line on abortion. Seven of the 13 states in Table One are “bright blue”; that is, they virtually always vote overwhelmingly Democrat in national elections. Three of the states are “purple”; that is, they sometimes vote Democrat; they sometimes vote Republican. Second, remember that Roe vs. Wade originally applied only to the first trimester of a pregnancy; although that has crept up to around seven months today.

In 2003, the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act, which the Supreme Court upheld, outlawed some late-term abortions; thereby stripping away the arguably most powerful anti-abortion argument. A reversal of Roe vs. Wade might lead to state laws outlawing other late-term abortions; but, those are generally few in number. Thus, while Table One's three red states, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina, might restrict some abortions, they probably have gone about as far as is feasible already.

One must recognise that, as in the case of "values voters", pro-abortion voters tend to passionately hold their positions. Those passions, the large numbers of abortions in those 13 states, and the existing latitude states already have make it unlikely, arguably remotely likely, that any states in Table One will materially restrict abortions further.

What about a constitutional amendment? Some have glibly suggested passing a constitutional amendment, in the unlikely event Congress fails to outlaw all abortions nationwide after a hypothetical reversal of Roe vs. Wade. Remembering that 39 states must ratify a constitutional amendment, take a second look at Table One. The reader will not see the eight blue states of Oregon, Washington, New Hampshire, Vermont, Wisconsin, Delaware, Connecticut, or Rhode Island. That makes 15 bright blue states that almost surely will not ratify such a hypothetical and fanciful constitutional amendment—at least not much before hell freezes over. Given the math, the idea, when emanating from a leader, seems either delusional or demagogic. It will never happen—and this from someone who “never says never.”

What have Anti-abortion advocates accomplished? Instead of reducing the number of abortions, antiabortion advocates have elected myriad pro-abortion fanatics, most of them leftist democrats. Some would argue that antiabortion advocates gave Bill Clinton just the edge he needed to beat George H. W. Bush. Moreover, President Clinton paid no political price when he vetoed a bill banning virtual infanticide! One can further argue that, in league with the tea party, “values voters” let the democrats hold the Senate in 2010. How! By nominating an airhead to run against the supposedly “doomed” Harry Reid; an airhead who had publicly acknowledged at least dabbling with witchcraft. Anti-abortion and Tea Party fanaticism gave the Democrats their 51st vote—a clear, if thin majority in the Senate. Congratulations, “values voters”.

For almost 38 years, “values voters” have done little more than “tilt at windmills!” Along the way, they have weakened their own Cause, enabled democrats to weaken and damage the military readiness and economy of the United States; and they have given people of faith a bad name. The Nation has sustained far too high a cost to justify a 38‑year‑long "feel‑good statement." “Values voters” would do well to leave such things to the "Losertarians".

Implications.” Insisting on candidates with impeccable “right to life” credentials has only elected people with whom "values voters" intensely disagree! “Values voters” need to recognize that they have lost the battle among the electorate. Through the ballot box, "values voters" have accomplished almost nothing; they have not materially reduced, and almost surely will not materially reduce, the number of abortions. They need to find other, non-violent, means to reach their goal. Perhaps more importantly, “values voters” need to recognize that “one trick pony” Rick Santorum will begin any General Election campaign with a huge number of women deeply, and intansingently committed to his defeat. He has no more chance of winning in November than does yours truly. For myriad reasons, it seems almost equally likely that Mitt Romney would lose in November as well—polls and pundits notwithstanding.

Today, America needs a conservative and practical visionary to win the Whitehouse and start pulling the nation out of the morass into which it has sunk. From this observer’s perspective, only Newt Gingrich satisfies those criteria.

“Values voters” need not concede their deeply held moral and theological concerns about abortion. They do need to recognize the practical implications of their dogged insistence on solid anti-abortion credentials in every Republican candidate and consider their next steps!

ADDENDUM: Since this post went up on February 10, 2012, Senator Santorum has unleashed a torrent of inflammatory comments on topics ranging from the evils of birth control to the nauseating nature of the separation of church and state. One might think that the Senator wanted to make sure he never won another election in his life, much less the Presidency in 2012. Perhaps Senator Santorum is a mole for the Obama campaign.

DJ